The Abraham Accords after 7 October
The Israel-Hamas War is undoubtedly a stress test for the Abraham Accords. How are the Accords likely to fare in the medium to long term? There are reasons for optimism. The Accords between Israel and each of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, the subsequent Israel-Morocco agreement and Sudan’s unilateral declaration embracing the principles of the Accords, are all expressed in different terms and have different legal effects. However, the nature of the commitments suggest that each is, in its own way, uniquely designed to absorb a geopolitical shock of this nature.
An old-fashioned ‘regular’ peace treaty looks in the rear-view mirror and responds to what has happened in the past. It then draws a line. It is brittle because it is vulnerable to the risk that events subsequently occur outside of the range of what has occurred in the past, beyond the contemplation of the signatories. The Accords, in all their forms, are different. Their forward-looking nature means that they are equipped to withstand the risk of new scenarios.
They are aspirational, built upon the recognition that regional co-existence is an inescapable reality. As such, ongoing relations between regional neighbours, but contextualised by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mean that historical events do not represent the universe of potential scenarios that could occur in the future. The risk of conflict between Israel and any of the non-state or state actors bent on destroying her would have been within the contemplation of the parties from the outset; the events of October 7 and the scope and likely length of resultant war would likely have not.
But the Accords are designed to withstand such a shock. We see this in the way that the Accords are chaperoned. While ‘regular’ peace treaties mark the end of a process, the Accords mark the beginning of one. This is why they have often been described as establishing the framework for ‘warm’ peace. There are various commitments in the Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Morocco deals to consolidate and expand the friendly relations into multiple spheres of everyday life, from finance to tourism to security. The Sudan declaration welcomes these steps, effectively adopting a similar outlook. This makes the Accords living arrangements, underpinning peace through ongoing cooperation.
The outstanding work of the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, for example, provides a vital auxiliary function by operating below state level with trade associations, companies and individuals. This lifts the nature of the interaction between the signatories out of the political, keeping the wet ink at the foot of the Accords from drying and fading. It is this dynamism that enables the Accords to absorb regional and geopolitical shocks. The Israel-Hamas War provides the most stringent test for the Accords, but there is sound reason to believe that they will not end up as collateral damage.